Order Instructions
Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022, escalating the Russo-Ukraine War that
had been ongoing since early 2014. Key issues include the status of Russian-speaking populations in
Eastern Ukraine, cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union, expansion of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO), Ukraine’s leadership, and the independence of Ukraine as such.
The question: How well does bargaining theory help us explain why the 2022 invasion occurred?
In formulating your essay, consider the following:
•What is the dispute fundamentally about? What is Russia trying to achieve? What is Ukraine trying
to achieve? What “goods” are in dispute?
•Is war costly for both sides? Is there a bargaining range? Are there negotiated outcomes that, in
principle, both sides would have preferred to war?
•Is there evidence of incomplete information, incentives to misrepresent, cheap talk, costly signals,
and other aspects of bargaining? Are there important domestic influences on bargaining? If so, do
these factors convincingly explain why the invasion occurred? [NB: For this assignment, you only
need to consider incomplete information, not commitment problems or issue indivisibilities.]
Consult the following (clickable) links for background on the conflict:
•General overviews
– https://www.npr.org/2022/02/12/1080205477/history-ukraine-russia
– https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia
– https://www.vox.com/2022/2/23/22948534/russia-ukraine-war-putin-explosions-
invasion-explained
•Current news
– https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/ukraine-russia
– https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukraine-russia/
•Russian sources
– https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/themes/824670/
– https://www.rt.com
•Ukrainian sources
– https://mfa.gov.ua/en/timeline [filter by “Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine”]
– https://www.ukrinform.net
Guidelines:
•Consult additional sources as needed to support your argument. Be sure to employ reputable sources.
Blogs, substacks, Wikipedia, cable news, random websites, and YouTube clips are not acceptable.
Policy journals with an international focus—Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, or The Washington
Quarterly—are excellent resources. Examples of acceptable newspaper sources include The Wash-
ington Post, The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Los Angeles Times, etc.,
as well as major Russian or Ukrainian outlets (though these are likely to be biased). International
news outlets, such as the BBC or the Guardian, are also acceptable. Examples of acceptable news-
magazines include The Economist, Bloomberg, The Atlantic, Mother Jones, Forbes, etc. Consult
with your TA if you have concerns about a particular source. You should plan to incorporate 3–4
additional sources beyond the links listed above.
•All sources must be thoroughly documented, including assigned course readings. Any reference to a
source must be properly cited. See this link for guidance: https://supportjudicialaffairs.sf.
ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/dgvnsk216/files/files/page/Avoiding%20Plagiarism.pdf. Be
sure to include a separate list of references. (The list of references is not included in the word
count.) All submissions will be filtered through TurnItIn’s plagiarism detector.
•Essays should be approximately 1,000 words in length, ±50 words. Use a standard 10–12pt font with
1” margins. Format your essay according to the American Political Science Association’s (APSA)
style guide, located at https://connect.apsanet.org/stylemanual/. Note that your paper does
not need a separate cover page or an abstract. (You may arrange with your TA to use a different
style guide, if preferred—but do use a style guide.)
•Essays should be logically and coherently organized, with an introduction, a conclusion, and a precise
thesis statement. The writing should be clear, concise, and free of grammatical errors. Excessive
errors will lower your grade.
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